Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.038952 1.219150 1.421288 1.664883 1.950587 2.275210 2.672301
2024-10-06 0.798838 1.050456 1.366266 1.792037 2.351769 3.063600 4.039576
2024-10-13 0.608957 0.868202 1.220597 1.735200 2.469015 3.480326 4.984786
2024-10-20 0.484902 0.738064 1.105130 1.677012 2.548103 3.829531 5.866618
2024-10-27 0.397476 0.640032 1.011809 1.624289 2.611844 4.148760 6.736286
2024-11-03 0.347739 0.588839 0.977195 1.649771 2.790915 4.658771 7.969608
2024-11-10 0.324689 0.575710 0.998841 1.765969 3.129774 5.467814 9.812694
2024-11-17 0.295416 0.546505 0.987845 1.822509 3.371753 6.143652 11.524930
2024-11-24 0.264329 0.508699 0.955308 1.833863 3.531482 6.692405 13.084648
2024-12-01 0.234791 0.468911 0.912730 1.818687 3.636650 7.150897 14.535936
2024-12-08 0.210422 0.435259 0.876513 1.809391 3.749689 7.636219 16.107151
2024-12-15 0.192407 0.411557 0.856119 1.828017 3.919919 8.255046 18.039496
2024-12-22 0.168816 0.373439 0.802536 1.772719 3.934015 8.568583 19.402675
2024-12-29 0.164125 0.375413 0.833371 1.904112 4.372637 9.849419 23.108959
2025-01-05 0.144629 0.341425 0.781480 1.843447 4.372341 10.166567 24.667328
2025-01-12 0.127679 0.310700 0.732408 1.781587 4.359177 10.450920 26.191174
2025-01-19 0.113315 0.283943 0.688636 1.725551 4.350938 10.744334 27.782425
2025-01-26 0.105664 0.272463 0.679429 1.752633 4.551245 11.569370 30.847332
2025-02-02 0.103994 0.275810 0.706834 1.876133 5.015099 13.117256 36.046516
2025-02-09 0.098980 0.269722 0.709678 1.936228 5.322275 14.308865 40.483478
2025-02-16 0.092109 0.257649 0.695370 1.948295 5.501917 15.190437 44.205955
2025-02-23 0.084697 0.242983 0.672111 1.932165 5.600694 15.866320 47.450075
2025-03-02 0.078271 0.230154 0.652093 1.922284 5.716019 16.605575 51.003731